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China & US inflation

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An important question about US inflation in the coming year or two is the extent to which rising commodity prices will feed into core inflation. As discussed in the piece that Chris and I did last week, the feed through from headline to core has been very low – in fact close to zero – in recent years.

One channel by which an impact could come is if rising commodity prices push up costs for manufacturers in the developing world and that translates to higher prices for imported manufactured goods in the US. In that regard, and in light of China’s strong GDP and high inflation figures today, this is an interesting chart:

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